Thursday, November 15, 2007

Can't Sit In-Front of the Screen All-Day Long To Monitor Your Trades???

Dear Fellow Options Traders :

Good News!

If you missed Thursday night's webinar on Options University Strategist (OUS), or you were simply not able to attend, you have one more chance to see it!

But you have to jump on this now!!.

Options University says that to keep the service manageable and to be fair to options traders who took up the service early, they will have to take down the Options University Strategist (OUS) Service as soon as all 100 spots are taken.

So, for one last time, here is that webinar replay page again!

If any slots are still available, you'll learn how to get started with OUS by viewing the webinar.

So now you have one last chance to get in on what's already being called ""the last options trading service you'll ever need."

Here is the link again!

Grab the introductory price and you'll lock in this price forever!! If you wish to sign up straight away just click here!!

I wanted to let you know of a new service coming out from The Options University called The Options University Strategist or OUS for short.

Specifically, the service will provide you :

* Daily / Weekly option picks, trade alerts, trade updates of existing postions, and POSITION MANAGEMENT..

* Breakdown of options they recommend to trade, the exact positions for you to enter into your broker platform..

* Immediate email and direct computer alerts every time they recommend a change in a position! (Special Proprietary Scanning & Filtering Software included)..

* How they handle the "morphing" and/or roll-out of the position..

* How and when to close out the position for the maximum gain..

The Service is suitable for options traders with different option trading styles (conservative/premium collector/directional trader etc..). It's especially suitable for Options Traders who have a Day-Job and could not sit in-front of the screen all day long to check their trades.

The preview video would give you a good idea what the service is all about..

Here's the link to that video ...

Also, there will be hosting a Special Webinar THIS Thursday night (15 Nov 2007) at 9:00 PM Eastern. It will cover OUS in much more detail, and answer any questions you might have about the service.

Here's where to get all the details for this Special OUS Webinar

Yours Truly,

Tony Chai

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

A Trade on Polo Ralph Lauren Corp's (RL)

Dear Fellow Options Traders :

Noted that Polo Ralph Lauren Corp (Ticker : RL), a designer & manufacturer of lifestyle products like apparel and accessories, would be reporting on 7 Nov 2007 before market opens.

Polo Ralph Lauren Corp's (RL) stock price has been beaten down quite badly. As of 5 Nov 2007, RL has reached a new 52-Week low of $66.00. For the past 3 quarters, RL had also gapped down after earnings announcement either from missing EPS estimate (Q1/08) or had provided downside guidance during Q4/07 & Q3/07 earnings announcement.

From past earnings, I observed RL have a price gapping range (in either direction) of around $3.00 to $4.00 after earnings announcement. I paper traded a slightly in-the-money Nov 65 Call on the eve of earnings announcement ie. 6 Nov 2007 when RL was trading around $66.00. From past experiences, I have found that trading a call option for earnings announcement of a company which has already reached 52-Week low would yield a hgher probability of success (BUT not always the case though).

On 7 Nov 2007 (Wednesday) before market opens, RL reported Q2 (Sep) earnings of $1.09 per share, comparable to Reuters Estimates consensus. Revenues rose 11.3% year/year to $1.3 bln vs the $1.27 bln consensus. However, RL projected Q3 revenues to grow at a mid single digit percentage range. Polo Ralph Lauren Corp's (RL) also issued guidance for FY08; expected EPS of $3.50-3.60, might not be comparable to $3.70 consensus; expected Y08 revenues to increase by a low-teen percentage.

On 7/11/07 (Wednesday), RL gapped down -$1.60 initially to $64.73 when market opened. But the stock price started to move up gradually with good volume so I started to chart resistance lines as the price went up, reminding myself to sell the position once the stock price crossed the latest resistance line (please refer to following diagram). I sold the position at around 10.10am EST when the red candle cut the highest resistance line coupled with heavy selling (represented by the red volume bar at the bottom of the chart).

Yours Truly,

Tony Chai
Options Trading Resources

Sunday, November 04, 2007

Here's A Second Chance To See What You Missed At The Recent Options Intensive Workshop ....

Dear Fellow Options Traders :

The recent Options University "Options Intensive Workshop 2007" held in the beautiful San Francisco was quite an event, with over 300 excited attendees held at rapt attention as some of the finest stock and options traders on the planet revealed their most guarded trading secrets.

If you have missed the event, the good news is - all is not lost!!

Fortunately for you (and the many others who were interested in attending the live event but just couldn't make it), Options University had the entire 3-day workshop (including the extra Bonus Day) professionally recorded on both CDs and DVDs.

So you now have a second chance to see and hear the workshop presentations from these superstar traders:

* Larry McMillan - The "Expert's Expert" on Options, revealed some insider techniques for using volatility in successful options trading.

* Tom Sosnoff - Options Expert, Former Floor Trader and Co-Founder of ThinkOrSwim (tm) - made a rare appearance at there seminar where he revealed little-known options trading techniques and tactics that will take your trading to the next level.

* Price Headley - "Top 10" Stock Market Timer and Options Trader (Voted the #1 Speaker by Attendees), let the workshop attendees in on some of his top strategies for trading "tricky", choppy markets - like the one we're in now.

* David “FirstWave” Elliott – Technical Analysis Wizard – Twice Voted World’s #1 Market Timer - held the attendees spellbound as he demonstrated trading techniques so powerful, he had them trademarked!

* Ron Ianieri – Professional Options Floor Trader, Market Maker And Expert Options Trainer - dazzled the audience as he revealed coveted techniques of a battle-hardened Philly Exchange floor trader who's made millions for himself and his ecstatic clients.

* Bill Johnson – Director of Education at Options University - covered crucial concepts beginner options traders have to know to be successful, plus some unusual techniques in using volatility to enhance trading gains.

* Stephen W. Bigalow - Noted Author and Candlestick Trading Expert - shared a handful of his all-time favorite candlestick patterns that almost always lead to giant-size trading gains

Quite a lineup, don't you think?

Anyway, if you'd like to get your hands on this valuable information and access it from the comfort of your recliner at your leisure, you now have the chance.

But the bad news is ...

Options University have just a limited quantity of the DVD/CD packages available.

In fact, the production crew only ran 100 sets. And at the special prices that they are letting these go for, they will most probably sell out well before our ordering deadline - which is November 15, 2007.

So if you want to get your hands on this unique, cutting-edge workshop package, or you'd like to get more background information first, I'd advise you to head over to this special web page as soon as possible...

"Options Intensive Workshop 2007" CDs and DVDs

Yours Truly,

Tony Chai

P.S. This may be the last time that these stock and options trading superstars will share the stage at the same time. Since you were
not able to attend the live event, the DVD/CD package will be the next best thing!

P.P.S. And don't forget, there will only be 100 available packages at this special price! Don't delay - check out the special link below for more details...

"Options Intensive Workshop 2007" CDs and DVDs

Saturday, November 03, 2007

A Trade on Buffalo Wild Wings Inc (BWLD)

Dear Fellow Options Trader :

I have shared in a previous post where Buffalo Wild Wings Inc (BWLD), a restaurant operator, gapped down -$7.00 to $36.50 On 1 Aug 2007 when it reported Q2 earnings which fell short of market expectation (after multiple quarters of upside results).

From, I've researched and saw an analyst's comment that BWLD valuation was still being held back by a few lingering concerns: 1) slowing growth rates and difficult back-half comparisons; 2) potential 1Q08 repricing of the fresh chicken wing contract; and 3) any difficulties with franchisees obtaining financing to open their restaurants.

I also checked back the script of Buffalo Wild Wings Inc (BWLD) Q2 Earnings Conference Call held on 31 Jul 2007 and noted that although July 2007 same store sale rebounded to +11%, there would be more difficult comparisons coming in the final 5 months of 2007.

I paper traded a slightly in-the-money Nov 40 Put on 30 Oct 2007 when Buffalo Wild Wings Inc (BWLD) was trading around $39.00.

On 30 Oct 2007 after market closed, Buffalo Wild Wings Inc (BWLD) reported Q3 same-store sales from co restaurants of 8.3% vs 6.5% est and Q3 revs of $82.4 mln (above est of $81.1 mln). Despite better revenue, EPS came in lower than expectaed at $0.24 vs. consensus of $0.26. The miss was mainly attributable to higher costs incurred from cost of goods and pre-opening expenses. The company could be facing a challenging environment ahead.

On 31/10/07 (Wednesday), Buffalo Wild Wings Inc (BWLD) gapped down -$8.00 to $31.33. I sold the put for a $550.00 profit.

Wishing you Profitable in your Options Trading too.

Yours Sincerely,

Tony Chai

Friday, November 02, 2007

A Losing Trade on CROCS Inc (CROX)

Dear Fellow Options Trader :

For the past 2 earnings quarters, CROCS Inc (CROX) was a stunning performer.

On 27 July 2007, CROX gapped up +$9.00 to $59.21 when they reported their Q2 earnings quarter where EPS was $0.14 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus and revenues rose 162.0% year/year to $224.3 mln.

On 4 May 2007, CROX gapped up +$12.00 to $69.00 when they reported Q1 earnings of $0.61 per share, $0.12 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.49; revenues rose 216.7% year/year to $142 mln. The company also announces 2-for-1 stock split.

I checked through the research analysts comments for the past 1 month or so and most were positive, expecting CROX to beat Q3 earnings with upside Q4 guidance anticipating a strong holiday season ahead. Besides, channel checks at the co's retail store also indicated sales to be exceptional.

After 2 blow-out earning quarters, expectation must be running high for CROX to perform exceptional well this quarter. as can be seen from the 9 points rise a few days before earnings announcement before the plunge on 1 Nov 2007.

CROX options are also expensive due to build-up of implied volatility leading to earnings announcement as you can see that the out-the-money Nov 75 Call still demand $6.10 per share.

Expecting CROCS Inc (CROX) to build on the momentum of the 2 previous blow-out earnings quarter, I paper traded a Nov 75 Call at $610.00 on the eve of earnings, 31 Oct 2007. After market closed, CROX reported Q3 earnings where EPS beat by a mere $0.03 while revenue was in-line. CROX raises FY07 guidance again but it was a mixed guidance as the company expect FY07 EPS to be $1.94-1.98 vs. $1.97 consensus while FY07 revenue to be $820-830 mln vs. $835.67 mln consensus. In the company conference call, CROX said they missed out on approx $10-15 mln this quarter due to delayed shipments.

On 1 Nov 2007 when market opened, CROX tanked -$20.00 to $53.60 and went down further -$6.00 to close at $47.74. The Nov 75 Call lost all its premium. It would now depend whether CROX would turn around these 2 weeks to fetch back at least some of the premium.

Yours Truly,

Tony Chai
Options Trading Resources