Saturday, January 05, 2008

A Trade on Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY)

Dear fellow options traders :

First of all, I want to wish everyone a Prosperous 2008 with your options trading!!

Checked that Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (ticker : BBBY) would be reporting earnings on 3 Jan 2008, after-market-close.

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc operates a retailer chain selling a range of domestic merchandise and home furnishings products. My first thought was naturally geared towards whether the company's business would be affected by the current housing market slump. As we know, the housing market have been hit quite badly for the past 2 years. Investors by now should be fully aware of the fallout of the sub-prime mortgage sector and the alarming rate of mortgage defaults & foreclosure. On 28 Dec 2007, the housing market plunged deeper into despair as it was reported that in Nov 2007, sales of new homes plummeting to their lowest level in more than 12 years, heightening fears that the US might be thrust into a recession. New-home sales tumbled 9% in November 2007 from October 2007 to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 647,000, the worst sales pace since April 1995.

At the same time, I read from a Fool.com report that BBBY's operating margin has been slumping for the past few quarters. It was also reported that in first six months of Bed Bath's fiscal year 2007, the chain generated just less than $125 million in free cash flow and yet the company went ahead with the share repurchase program.

I've studied that BBBY's past gapping range after earnings was around $2.00. Thus, on 3 Jan 2008, I paper-traded 2 lots of near-the-money Feb '08 27.50 put at $140.00 per contract when BBBY was trading around $27.50.

On 3 Jan 2008 after-market-close, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) reported Q3 earnings of $0.52 per share, which included $8 million tax gain and might not be comparable to the consensus of $0.52; revenues rose 10.9% year/year to $1.8 bln vs the $1.77 bln consensus. But the company issued downside guidance for Q4, expecting EPS to be $0.64-0.67 vs. $0.78 consensus; and would be expecting flat comps for Q4.

On 4 Jan 2008 before market opened trading, the Dow future was already down more than 100 points when disappointing employment data were reported. The December non-farm payrolls came in at only 18K. The economists were expecting payrolls to increase by 70K. The unemployment rate was also at an alarming rate of 5.0%, giving further hint of a possible economy slump. The market didn't react well to BBBY's earnings too, as the stock price gapped down -$2.30 to $25.12 when market opened trading.




I watched the Level 2 code, candle stick chart movement and trading volume and sold the 2 lots of puts for $300.00 a contract when I noticed that the selling pressure (circled in red in the chart) has precipitated. The paper profit was $290.00 after deducting commission.

Yours Truly,

Tony Chai
Options Trading Resources

P.S. BTW, I've just completed an e-book entitled "How To Avoid The 5 Silly Options Trading Mistakes I've Made",which is rather self explanatory on how you could save your hard-earned capital by learning from the money-losing experieces that I have encountered during my options trading journey. You can claim this e-book for FREE by sending an email to chchai.options4u@info.trafficwave.net. Once you're in the mailing list, I would also be sending you emails at time where I would highlight potential stocks for earnings gapping analysis trade for your consideration. So do look out for them :)

9 comments:

Chin said...

Dear Tony

I'm batch 59 freely.

For this BBBY, you said that there is a comment from fool.com but I couldn't find the info. Could you pls tell me where should I locate the relevant section so that I can learn something from you.

Thanks & regards

Chin

Tony Chai said...

Hi Chin :

Thanks for dropping by my blog.

I've fixed the URL link, you should be able to view the report from Fool.com now. Thanks for pointing it out.

Q4 earnings season is coming, wishing you profitable trades ahead.

Regards,

Tony Chai
Options Trading Blog

Option Trading Strategy said...

hi tony,

what is your favorite strategy ? and why ?

Tony Chai said...

Hi :

I trade options mainly on earnings gapping analysis. I select my trade very carefully and would avoid a straight call/put position if I find the risk/reward ratio not worthless based on inflated implied volatility or not enough info to support my anticipation of the gapping direction.

I am now learning to apply other techniques like spread and backspread to trade such situation.

Thanks for your query.

Yours Truly,

Tony Chai
My Options Trading Blog

Alan Lee said...

Hi Tony
Thanks for popping along to my blog and leaving a comment. Trading is sure a tough endeavour but I think it's the ultimate business.. low overheads, high profit potential but it's very difficult to grasp!
Regards
Alan

Tony Chai said...

Hi Alan :

You need to accumulate your trading experiences and learn from your experiences in order to become a better trader as you also put your full commitment into it.

There's lots of obstacles but with your determination I would evolve a trading plan and technique which suit your trading psychology, investment capital size and your risk/reward ratio appetite.

Best Regards,

Tony Chai
My Options Trading Blog

Choun Min said...

Dear Tony,

I am from batch 62. Appreciate your effort. See you at the top.

Nee

Tony Chai said...

Hi Nee :

Thread slowly & carefully in how you trade earnings gapping analysis. Do take take up any trade which does not have worthwhile risks/rewards ratio.

Regards,

Tony Chai

Tony Chai said...

Hi Nee :

Sorry, I meant to say, DO NOT take up any trades which do not have good risks/reward ratio.

This means that if implied volatility are too high resulting in options premiums to be very expensive leading to earnings announcement, you must determine whether the gapping magnitude is big enough to overcome the high time value applied to the premium.

The other concern you have to manage is determining the correct direction of gapping.

Regards,

Tony Chai